Red Bull faces difficult choices: Lawson struggles amid Tsunoda's rise

Red Bull Racing/Red Bull Content Pool

In the world of Formula 1, a few things are certain: death, taxes, and speculation about Max Verstappen's teammate facing an impending departure. The latest Red Bull driver to confront this challenge is Liam Lawson, whose tumultuous start has ignited discussions about his potential replacement after only two races.

During the Chinese Grand Prix, Lawson's performance was hardly stellar; he finished 15th but was promoted to 12th due to the disqualification of three other drivers. Despite the lukewarm results, team boss Christian Horner dodged several opportunities to quash rumors that Lawson could be swapped out for Racing Bulls' Yuki Tsunoda ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix on April 6.

"I think everything is purely speculative at the moment," Horner stated in Shanghai. "We've just finished this race. We're going to take away the info and have a good look at it... I think Liam still has potential—we're just not realizing that at the moment."

Red Bull's final race in Japan with Honda power could offer a tantalizing twist if Tsunoda, who has long been on the outskirts of a Red Bull seat, were to take Lawson’s place. It would also be another chapter in the convoluted decision-making that has characterized Red Bull's driver management, apart from Verstappen's dominance.

Decision time for Red Bull

A decision is expected this week, and if a switch occurs, Red Bull would be suggesting that two races were enough to determine Lawson’s inadequacy—despite last year's assertions that 11 races had provided all the data needed to believe in his potential. Meanwhile, Tsunoda's four years of consistent performance seemed insufficient until now. It's a perplexing situation.

The very fact that Lawson's position is a subject of debate so early in his tenure, and that Red Bull hasn't immediately dismissed the speculation, is telling. No matter the performance, two races is an insufficient window to gauge a driver's capabilities. Red Bull Racing's recurring issues in driver management beg the question: how does a team known for pioneering Formula 1 driver programs find itself in such a predicament repeatedly?

Lawson in the eye of the storm

Liam Lawson is grappling with the pressure of competing alongside Verstappen, dealing with an unpredictable car, and high expectations set by predecessors. Since Daniel Ricciardo's 2019 departure, drivers like Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon have struggled, with Sergio Pérez achieving brief success before faltering. Lawson's own entry has been marred by pre-season challenges and unfamiliar tracks, leading to mixed results.

Replacing popular drivers like Ricciardo and Pérez hasn’t helped Lawson’s standing with fans, and outperforming Tsunoda has only added to the pressure. Incidents involving Alonso and Pérez have further underscored Lawson's challenging transition at Red Bull.

The struggles of Lawson highlight Tsunoda's growth contrast

While Lawson faltered in Shanghai, Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko praised Tsunoda's consistent growth. Despite enduring strategic errors and scoring zero points, Tsunoda’s performances have been impressive.

Red Bull's reluctance to promote Tsunoda, despite his evident improvements, is puzzling. Tsunoda has matured significantly, controlling his radio outbursts and becoming a crucial team member. Unlike Tsunoda, Lawson hasn't had a full season to prove his worth.

With Tsunoda’s contract nearing its end, promoting him in 2025 could solve Red Bull's perennial second-driver issue or at least provide clarity for future decisions. Red Bull faces a conundrum: either risk denting Lawson's confidence by replacing him or reward Tsunoda with the top-team opportunity he has seemingly earned.

The anticipated decision by Christian Horner will undoubtedly reflect the complexities of these considerations, as Red Bull navigates its way through yet another driver dilemma.

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