Predicting the 2025 F1 running order from Bahrain insights

Red Bull Racing/Red Bull Content Pool

SAKHIR, Bahrain -- Testing lap times are unreliable due to varying fuel levels, with 10 kg of fuel slowing a car by 0.3 seconds. Race simulations offer more accurate data but can be impacted by time of day, tire strategy, and engine settings.

Bahrain testing reveals potential 2025 F1 hierarchy: a closer look at team performances.

Race Sundays attempted to predict the post-preseason order by averaging race simulation lap times. However, these predictions should be treated cautiously. The data is from three cold, occasionally wet, and windy days in Bahrain, favoring cars with good traction and braking. The first race at Albert Park in two weeks presents different challenges.

1. McLaren

2024 Constructors' Standing: 1st

Fastest Lap: 1:29.940 — Oscar Piastri

Laps Completed: 381

McLaren preseason testing summary 2025 - Bahrain

McLaren’s preseason test results are deceptive when looking at fastest laps alone. Piastri and Norris placed eighth and thirteenth on individual fast laps, respectively. However, their race simulation average lap times were 0.3 seconds faster per lap than the nearest competitors, indicating they could have won the Bahrain Grand Prix by 17 seconds. Though conditions could change in Australia, the MCL39 showcased remarkable performance in Bahrain.

The McLaren team is exuding confidence and is being considered the team to beat in Melbourne. They remain cautious in public statements but are seen as strong contenders.

Despite their impressive form, McLaren has not reached the dominance seen from Red Bull in 2023. Rivals' upgrades or minor errors could affect their standing. However, the team’s steady progress suggests they remain on a promising trajectory into 2025, with their current status as favorites well-earned but not guaranteed.

2. Ferrari

2024 Constructors' Standing: 2nd

Fastest Lap: 1:29.379 — Lewis Hamilton

Laps Completed: 382

Ferrari preseason testing summary 2025 - Bahrain

In recent testing, both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc posted times competitive with last year’s Bahrain Grand Prix grid, likely on heavy fuel loads. Leclerc’s race simulation lagged Norris by 0.3 seconds due to tire strategies, as Norris used the durable C1 tire while Leclerc was on the less resilient C2. Cooler conditions appeared to favor McLaren, but Ferrari's SF-25 shows untapped potential, according to team boss Frédéric Vasseur.

Despite the buzz around Hamilton joining Ferrari, their testing remained calm and focused. Rivals place Ferrari between second and fourth, but the team is confident and satisfied with their competitive driver lineup.

Hamilton won’t start with an outright dominant car, but Ferrari's strong preseason performance promises an exciting season ahead, with the team ready to challenge McLaren and others in Melbourne.

3. Mercedes

2024 Constructors' Standing: 4th

Fastest Lap: 1:29.545 — George Russell

Laps Completed: 458

Mercedes preseason testing summary 2025 - Bahrain

Mercedes made notable progress in Bahrain, with George Russell clocking the fastest lap on the final day and the W16 completing the most laps. Andrea Kimi Antonelli's race simulation was commendable, nearly matching Charles Leclerc's performance despite his rookie status. Both drivers showed consistent performance, though Bahrain’s cold conditions might have skewed results.

Russell’s satisfaction with the W16 contrasts with previous seasons. Mercedes approaches Australia with optimism and is seen as a team to watch.

Despite past struggles, preseason results are promising. Russell seems competitive, and Antonelli’s potential adds excitement for 2024.

4. Red Bull

2024 Constructors' Standing: 3rd

Fastest Lap: 1:29.566 — Max Verstappen

Laps Completed: 304

Red Bull Racing preseason testing summary 2025 - Bahrain

Red Bull completed the fewest laps in preseason testing, with both Max Verstappen and Liam Lawson encountering spins. Despite this, Verstappen’s top lap was just 0.2 seconds off the fastest time of the week, indicating the car's potential. However, Lawson's race simulation showed a 0.9-second per lap deficit compared to Lando Norris.

Opinions vary, with some joking about the car’s varying performance based on the driver. Verstappen’s talent could secure wins despite the RB21’s issues. Red Bull is relieved to remain competitive after a tough previous season.

Overall, Red Bull's testing results were mixed but not disastrous. The car retains some issues from last year but is competitive among the top four teams. Lawson’s limited testing is a concern, and he must adapt quickly to support Verstappen.

5. Alpine

2024 Constructors' Standing: 6th

Fastest Lap: 1:30.040 — Pierre Gasly

Laps Completed: 405

Alpine preseason testing summary 2025 - Bahrain

During preseason testing in Bahrain, Alpine showed significant improvement with Pierre Gasly delivering competitive lap times. He briefly topped the timing charts before other drivers, benefiting from better conditions, surpassed his times. Doohan's race simulation also suggested a strong position within the midfield.

Alpine had a productive preseason and views Williams as their closest rival going into Melbourne. While optimistic, the team acknowledges that their gap to the top teams remains unchanged.

Positioned as the "best of the rest" behind the top four teams, Alpine aims to secure valuable points in the early races, leveraging their improved performance from last year.

6. Williams

2024 Constructors' Standing: 9th

Fastest Lap: 1:29.348 — Carlos Sainz

Laps Completed: 395

Williams preseason testing summary 2025 - Bahrain

Williams recorded an impressive 1:29.348 lap time by Carlos Sainz at the Bahrain International Circuit, significantly faster than last year's best qualifying lap. Though likely achieved with a light fuel load, the lap hints at the car's potential. Alex Albon's times were competitive, though his race simulation lagged 1.5 seconds behind Oscar Piastri’s benchmark.

Despite recent struggles, Williams showed promising signs during testing, fostering cautious optimism within the team. Some suspect the standout times aimed to attract new sponsors, but overall sentiment is positive, and the team feels prepared for 2024.

Following significant internal changes, Williams aims to leverage these improvements. While their main focus is on strong performances in 2026, the current testing results suggest a potential move up the midfield standings by 2025.

7. Haas

2024 Constructors' Standing: 7th

Fastest Lap: 1:30.728 — Esteban Ocon

Laps Completed: 457

Haas preseason testing summary 2025 - Bahrain

Haas' testing involved a heavy fuel load, leading to initially underestimated lap times. However, they surprised many in 2024 with the fifth-fastest car. Ocon's final-day race simulation was promising, closely matching Oscar Piastri and slightly outperforming Alpine, placing Haas competitively in the midfield.

Staying true to their low-profile approach under boss Ayao Komatsu, Haas had a stable and uneventful testing phase, with only minor delays. The team feels prepared for Melbourne, and rivals have noted their competence throughout testing.

Continuing their under-the-radar strategy, Haas integrates a new driver lineup and revamped engineering team, anticipating similar performance to last year. They aim to seize opportunities and score points in unpredictable races.

8. Aston Martin

2024 Constructors' Standing: 5th

Fastest Lap: 1:30.229 — Lance Stroll

Laps Completed: 306

Aston Martin preseason testing summary 2025 - Bahrain

Aston Martin completed only a few laps during testing, with no race simulations. Stroll's decent lap times placed him 10th fastest, but there's insufficient data for a comprehensive evaluation. The team's focus on experiments and testing items suggests their package may not be ready for the season's start.

The paddock suspects Aston Martin has slipped down the pecking order. Despite optimism from Alonso and the addition of top talent like Adrian Newey, the emphasis is on long-term success. The team has expanded with nearly 250 new staff members, reflecting this vision.

Aston Martin aims to create a more drivable car, achieving predictability but still lacking in overall performance. Their immediate goal is to lead the midfield, with the understanding that short-term struggles are part of their long-term strategy.

9. Racing Bulls

2024 Constructors' Standing: 8th

Fastest Lap: 1:30.497 — Yuki Tsunoda

Laps Completed: 454

Racing Bulls preseason testing summary 2025 - Bahrain

Racing Bulls had a solid test, achieving the third-highest lap count with mid-tier times. Tsunoda and Hadjar's speeds were unremarkable, with Hadjar's race simulation just 0.2 seconds off a competitor's pace.

The team doesn't usually attract much excitement during preseason tests. Despite their striking livery, the cars might still trail at the back. Tsunoda is a key performer but may struggle to improve the team's position, with early and effective upgrades being critical.

Racing Bulls are positioned in the lower order as in past performances, depending on updates to boost their competitiveness.

10. Sauber

2024 Constructors' Standing: 10th

Fastest Lap: 1:31.057 — Gabriel Bortoleto

Laps Completed: 354

Sauber preseason testing summary 2025 - Bahrain

Sauber has encountered significant performance issues, with lap times in the 1:31s, far behind the leading 1:29s. Bortoleto's race simulation revealed a concerning 1.6 seconds per lap deficit compared to Lando Norris and slower than Isack Hadjar.

The team's primary focus is the integration with Audi in 2026 rather than current performance. This year is viewed as a transitional phase, accepted without panic. Rival teams expect Sauber to be at the back of the grid in March.

Sauber is projected to finish last in the 2024 season, marking a modest farewell to the Peter Sauber era in a historically underachieving team.

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