McLaren vs Ferrari vs Mercedes: Decoding the first F1 2025 race simulation data
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McLaren vs Ferrari vs Mercedes: Decoding the first F1 2025 race simulation data
The 2025 Formula 1 pre-season testing in Bahrain is well underway, with McLaren, Ferrari, and Mercedes emerging as the key contenders in the first real race simulation of the season. Among them, McLaren displayed the strongest performance, continuing the momentum from their successful 2024 campaign.
McLaren sets the pace in F1 testing
Lando Norris, behind the wheel of the McLaren MCL39, showcased impressive consistency and low degradation, outperforming both Charles Leclerc and Andrea Kimi Antonelli in long-run simulations.
Despite not topping the overall time sheets on the second day, McLaren’s performance in the race simulation suggested they could be the team to beat once the season begins.
Breaking down the 2025 F1 race sim data
When analyzing the average lap times over a full race distance, Norris was +0.537 seconds per lap quicker than Leclerc and +0.591 seconds faster than Antonelli. While fuel loads and engine settings remain unknown, this comparison provides a strong indicator of relative performance between the three teams.
Graphically breaking down the race pace:
- McLaren: Strongest in the final stint on the C2 compound, showing impressive race pace and minimal degradation.
- Ferrari: Consistent, but trailing McLaren in outright pace. Leclerc demonstrated steady lap times with minimal variation across C1, C2, and C3 compounds.
- Mercedes: Struggled with C3 tire degradation and showed inconsistent performance with harder compounds.
Fuel-corrected analysis: Mercedes struggles continue
When adjusting for fuel loads—assuming 105 kilograms for a 57-lap race—it becomes clear that Mercedes still faces challenges with the C3 tire. Their pace fluctuated significantly, especially in the longer stints.
On the other hand, McLaren’s pace improved as the laps progressed on the C2 compound, a common trait in pre-season testing when teams are still optimizing their setups. Ferrari followed a similar approach with the C1 tire, focusing on maintaining steady tire life and hiding their full potential.
How teams approached the race simulation
At the start of the race sim, all three teams ran on the C3 medium compound. McLaren quickly established an advantage, with Norris lapping more than three-tenths quicker on average than Leclerc and Antonelli.
During the first pit stop:
- Leclerc and Antonelli switched to the C2 compound.
- Norris opted for the C1 compound, the hardest tire available.
Even with a harder tire, McLaren maintained superior pace, suggesting a well-balanced car with strong long-run potential.
Final stint: McLaren dominates
As the race simulation concluded, Norris switched to a softer compound, delivering a blistering performance. The McLaren driver was a full one second per lap faster than Leclerc and Antonelli, reinforcing the team’s strength heading into the new season.
Where do Mercedes stand?
While McLaren appears to be leading the early battle, Mercedes has yet to show they can consistently challenge for the top spots. Their struggles with tire degradation and inconsistency on harder compounds indicate more work is needed before the first Grand Prix.
What’s next in F1 pre-season testing?
With one final day of testing remaining, teams will have another opportunity to refine their setups and gather valuable data. Long-run performance analysis will be key, but the final day may also feature some qualifying simulations, offering a clearer picture of the outright one-lap pace of each car.
Stay tuned for more updates as we approach the start of the 2025 Formula 1 season.
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