Red Bull's second-driver dilemma: Pérez, Ricciardo, and the uncertain future
McLaren's surge deepens Red Bull's woes
The Hungarian Grand Prix highlighted a significant dilemma for Red Bull Racing concerning Sergio Pérez. As Pérez made another qualifying blunder, Max Verstappen struggled to secure fifth place. Meanwhile, McLaren shone with its best F1 performance in over a decade. Red Bull's comfortable lead in the constructors' championship has now dwindled to just 51 points ahead of McLaren, compared to the 229-point lead it held ahead of last year's Belgian Grand Prix.
This shift is evident in McLaren's 58-point swing over Red Bull in the past six races. As McLaren's CEO Zak Brown noted, with Pérez's inconsistent form, Red Bull’s dominance in the constructors' championship is now questionable.
Lando Norris's win at the Miami Grand Prix in May marked McLaren's resurgence, a period coinciding with Pérez's slump. Since his last podium finish at the Chinese Grand Prix, Pérez's finishes have been a string of low results, including a 17th place and multiple failures to advance beyond Q1. Notably, he has been out-qualified by Logan Sergeant, a driver who hasn't out-qualified his own teammate multiple times this season.
Despite Pérez signing a contract extension for 2025, internal discussions at Red Bull suggest regret over this decision. With the summer break approaching post-Belgian Grand Prix, the team's decision on Pérez's future looms critical.
Sources indicate that a potential pay-off for Pérez would approximate $5 million. The economic implications also weigh in, considering the $10 million difference in the constructors' championship standings and potential losses from major partners. Pérez's crashes have already inflated Red Bull's repair costs, a concern in the current cost-cap era.
Tensions within Red Bull have been apparent, especially following Pérez's spin during British Grand Prix qualifying. Technical director Pierre Waché and senior engineers have expressed doubt over Pérez’s ability to help secure the constructors' championship. The Mexican's struggles are now a common topic amongst the Red Bull team, with no clear reason for his decline.
Pérez's performance at Silverstone and Hungary further heightened concerns, although his climb from 16th to 7th in Hungary provided a slight reprieve. Yet, Red Bull's emphasis on this performance reflected their desperation, given Pérez’s form and confidence issues compared to Verstappen.
Daniel Ricciardo finds himself in a peculiar position, uncertain about his future beyond the summer break. With Red Bull reserve driver Liam Lawson prepared to replace either Ricciardo or Pérez, Ricciardo's place within the team has been in jeopardy.
Ricciardo's initial performance this year was less than stellar, and he was notably absent from discussions about replacing Pérez. An analogy from Christian Horner at the Austrian GP highlighted Ricciardo's precarious position, suggesting he needed to deliver strong performances to retain his seat.
Fortunately, Ricciardo's qualifying performance in Budapest, following Pérez's crash, showcased his potential. Though a strategic miscalculation cost him points, his effort was a timely reminder of his capabilities. One source indicated Ricciardo no longer risks losing his seat, making him a potential candidate to replace Pérez.
Ricciardo’s experience, particularly as Verstappen's former teammate, and his favor with Horner might play to his advantage. However, skepticism remains whether this iteration of Ricciardo can significantly aid Red Bull in the constructors' fight given his recent inconsistent form.
Quietly present amidst these discussions is Liam Lawson. The 22-year-old Kiwi, highly regarded within Red Bull, performed impressively as Ricciardo’s stand-in last year. Despite impressing during a recent test, there are reservations about whether the Pérez seat might be too much too soon for him, potentially stalling a promising career.
Sources suggest Lawson might be on the grid post-summer break, either replacing Pérez at Red Bull, filling a gap at the junior team, or taking over from Ricciardo. An upcoming test at Imola with a 2022 AlphaTauri car should provide further evaluation.
To many, Yuki Tsunoda seems an obvious solution to the Pérez dilemma. Tsunoda has been Red Bull's in-form driver since the start of 2023. Promoting him would align with Red Bull's tradition of advancing homegrown talents and provide a significant PR boost for Honda. Despite this, multiple sources indicate Tsunoda is not being considered for a move to the top team this summer.
Horner's reservations about Tsunoda's temperament, despite his talent, have kept him from being considered for a Red Bull seat. This hesitation leaves Tsunoda in a challenging position within the Red Bull system, with limited alternatives.
As Red Bull grapples with its second-driver dilemma, the future of Pérez, Ricciardo, Lawson, and Tsunoda remains uncertain, with significant ramifications for the team's pursuit of the constructors' championship.
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